Activities aimed at mitigating risks associated with coastal flooding rely on detailed knowledge of metocean processes, such as waves, winds, currents, and storm surges.

The present research aims to develop an innovative methodology for defining the characteristics of extreme offshore sea states, taking into account the effects of climate change. These activities are closely linked to those developed under Thematic Area 4, for which the necessary input data will be provided.

The research is organized as follows. The first step will involve selecting, in collaboration with the RETURN consortium, a study area exposed to coastal flood risk, which includes transportation infrastructures, such as a railway. Ideal candidates could be stretches of the Ligurian and/or Calabrian coasts.

Next, available wave motion measurements in the study area will be collected, including historical time series from wave buoys and satellite observations. The following step will involve extracting model data, such as ERA5 Copernicus reconstructions and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections from Copernicus ECMWF.

Finally, after calibrating and validating the historical series, the analysis methodology will be developed to forecast extreme offshore wave values.